Economic Uncertanity

Day 17. With each day the economic impact of the pandemic comes into sharper focus. I am not speaking of the stock market but rather the impact on individual businesses large and small who are all focused on assessing the impact of a months-long shut down of the economy on their businesses. Of course, the impact differs from business to business and industry to industry. Just yesterday I worked with several clients whose specific experiences and forecasts for the future were different but whose overall concerns were identical.

My preliminary assessment is as follows:

  1. Every business, large and small will be adversely impacted.
  2. Businesses that have taken preemptive cost reduction steps will have a much better chance of survival than those who delay.
  3. Leveraged businesses are at much greater risk than non-leveraged businesses and thus survival strategies will differ.
  4. The uncertainty regarding the duration of the economic shut down requires management to reassess daily and to proactively prepare additional (more drastic) steps for possible implementation in the future.
  5. The government Covid-19 stimulus package will save businesses that are able to qualify and are awarded the assistance.

The most troubling unknown – “When will this be over?”

No one has the answer to this question.

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